The Ravens are 3-point favorites in the game and +100 to win the division, while the Bengals are +190. Cincy has rebounded after an 0-2 start, while the Ravens have lost big leads in both of their losses. A key battle for the AFC North takes place Sunday night as the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens clash in Baltimore. The Steelers will likely be playing from behind in this game, meaning Pickett will have to sling the rock a lot on Sunday. They allow completions, but are great at limiting yards after the catch. The Bills have the best defense in the NFL, but play zone coverage without blitzing on over 85% plays against the pass. Marks: I will be taking over 20.5 completions for Kenny Pickett. I'm backing the Bills despite the large spread. The Steelers are averaging only 278.8 yards per game on offense, so head coach Mike Tomlin will be looking for a spark, but Kenny Pickett on the road will have a tough time going blow for blow with Allen. Pittsburgh will have difficulty pressuring Allen. The Steelers' defense ranks 26th in pass rush win rate. With Josh Allen under center, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary and other offensive playmakers, this Bills offense should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field and scoring a ton of points. The Steelers are giving up a staggering 383 yards per game. It will be difficult for a Steelers defense without T.J.
Moody: The Bills' offense averages 412.5 yards per game, which is third in the NFL. Create up to 5 entries 60 prizes worth $88,500! Make Your Picks But if the Steelers can keep the Bills to a reasonable number of points, there's a good chance the rookie quarterback can score some garbage-time points and bring us a nice backdoor cover. The other side of the ball is a huge mismatch the rookie quarterback against our No. Buffalo is 10th in our offensive DVOA ratings - and Pittsburgh, even without T.J. There's this feeling out there that the Bills' offense is unstoppable, and it really isn't that good. Schatz: This is a close one, but if I have to choose, I'll take the rookie quarterback and 14 points. Are you laying the big number or taking the 14 with a rookie QB? The Bills (-14, 47) have struggled as well the past two weeks. Rookie Kenny Pickett gets his first NFL start Sunday, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 14-point underdogs at the Buffalo Bills, the largest they have been since the AFL/NFL merger (1970). The NBA season is almost here! Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Basketball today. The parity around the league has never been better, and if you have been teasing dogs each week - you should be playing with house money. Twenty-three of those games have been decided by three points or less and 31 have been decided by six points or less. Marks: This season - there have been 50 games within a single score heading into the 4th quarter, the most ever through the first four weeks of a season. It's just worth keeping in mind as we try to forecast how often - and how well - teams will decide to run. Yards per designed pass are down just slightly from last year (6.30 to 6.24). Designed rushing efficiency is at an all-time high in our data set - which goes back to 2006 - at 4.24 yards per designed carry. Walder: Just something to keep an eye on, but there has been a very slight shift in the balance of power between run and pass thus far this year. It's reflected in the line, and you need to be smart about it in the way you place bets. There's a big difference between Baltimore's 2-2 and Arizona's 2-2.
Don't let that confuse you into thinking all 2-2 teams have played the same. Fourteen teams are now 2-2 (plus Denver, which was 2-2 before Thursday night). Schatz: There's a lot of parity in the league this year. What is your biggest betting storyline entering Week 4?
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated. We have several division matchups, culminating Sunday night with the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Baltimore Ravens.īut what does all this mean from a betting perspective? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?īetting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and André Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz offer insight into the games with tips and picks. Hopefully Sunday we'll get a little more excitement. Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season kicked off Thursday night with the Indianapolis Colts pulling out a 12-9 victory over the Denver Broncos.
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